The interest-dependent and security-first policy of
the involved powers in the Iraqi issues over the past six years has hidden major
threats and brutal violations of human rights. Passive approaches to these
threats and violations have only served to anchor a sense of injustice in the
Iraqi society and failed to lay the stability.
Despite fierce debate in the
Iraqi parliament, a rigid Kurdish policy combined with pressure from different
national and international authorities have forced the Turkmen and Arab Law
makers of Kerkuk to accept the grossly flawed voter list for the upcoming Iraqi
general elections:
Statistics in Kerkuk province; the number
of Kerkuk voters registered primarily in 2004 were 474,336. This figure
increased to 576,048,1-4 when about
108,640 Kurds were accepted to register as voters in Kerkuk, during preparation
of voter lists for the Iraqi general election of 30 January 2005. Later on, the
number of Kerkuk voters in comparison with other provinces was
disproportionally increased during the renewal of voter lists for Iraqi general
elections 15 December 2005 adding 227,235 new voters, most of them were Kurds.
This increased the number of voters in Kerkuk province to above 800,000.2, 5-8 The electoral office of Kerkuk, which is
administered by the Kurds, have announced before few weeks that the number of
voters in Kerkuk province have grown further. The figure is still growing and
it is possible that it will reach 900,000 by the deadline of renewing of the
voter lists. For context, it is important to note:
Ö
That the Kurdish parties dominated Kerkuk administration
after occupation.
Ö
That on the day of the fall of the Ba’athist
regime in 2003, the population of Kerkuk numbered 830,000.
Statistics in Kurdish region; voter numbers in the
Kurdish-administered area were listed as 971,953 in the 1992 election organized
by the United Nations, but before the 25 July 2009 elections, the Kurdish
administration has presented a list of 2,570,000 voters in the provincial
elections in Kurdish region. If we consider the voter number of Kurdish region at
2009 by population growth equation: P1=Po
(1 + t)n, it is expected to be 1.6 million instead of
2,570,00. It is of note:
Ö
That tens of thousands of Kurdish families moved to
the so-called disputed regions after the 2003 occupation of Iraq
Ö
That large numbers of Kurdish families fled after
1992.
Election processes are a complex
operation involving many dimensions and phases. Significant election frauds can
occur at any stage and in any instant during the process. Just for example, a
type of fraud which is widely talked about in northern Iraq is use of
two ballot boxes, one of which is put in front of voters and ignored and the
second which is prepared by authorities and calculated. Therefore, major
corruptions can be expected in all election stages. It can be considered that manipulation
of election processes started when the Political Council of National Security
started to prepare the draft law depending on the voter lists of 2004 and 2005
with the addition of natural increase in number of voters, the Iraqi
Independent High Electoral Commission, which
is headed by a Kurd, announced to considerable disbelief the loss of
huge voter lists from 2004 and 2005.
There are two opportunities by
which the European, American and other international authorities can help the
Iraqis to prevent huge fraud in the upcoming elections in northern Iraq and to
stop corruption of the political process by Kurdish authorities and consolidate
ongoing abuse of administrative power.
Firstly, the recently recognised
election law necessitates thorough investigation of the voter lists of Kerkuk
province. A demographic shift of more than 5%, which is highly expected, will cancel
the elections of Kerkuk province. The attempts of the Kurdish authorities to
annex Kerkuk province together with a domination of the administration of
Kerkuk province by Kurdish political parties will most probably hinder or
corrupt the operation of investigation of the Kerkuk voter list.
Secondly, in the present
state of affairs in the Kurdish-administered regions, Kerkuk province and other
so-called disputed regions - in which live about 10 million people, it is
clearly impossible to detect the election frauds with usual observation
systems.
The questions which impose
itself, how many international observers and how they:
Ö
Can ensure careful and close observation of all
stages of the election process.
Ö
Can examine the inflated voter lists
Ö
Watch tens of thousands of ballot boxes, prior
to, during and particularly after election and during their transfer to counting
centres.
Ö
Participate in the process of calculation of millions
of votes.
Ö
Pay attention to the elelction process in districts and
sub-districts
We therefore urge the European
and US authorities to:
Ö
Organize meetings with the law makers,
politicians and civil society organizations of Arabs, Turkmen,
Chaldea-Assyrians, Yazidis and Shabaks in the region and discusses effective
observation methods.
Ö
Encourage and finance western expert
individuals and organizations to participate in direct observation of all
stages of election processes in the Kurdish-administered region, so-called
disputed regions and Kerkuk province.
Ö
Demand post-election examination of the
abnormally inflated voter lists of Sulaymaniya, Erbil,
Duhok province, so-called disputed region and participate actively in
examination of voter lists of Kerkuk province.
___________________________________
References:
1. John
Diamond, “Secular Shiite on the inside
track to top job”, Posted 2/15/2005
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2005-02-15-aljaafari-pm_x.htm
2. Christian Program, “Election analysis”, http://www.capiraq.org/Maps/Articles/Elections_Analysis.pdf
3. Electoral geography, “Iraq.
Legislative Election 2005 (January)”, 30 January 2005
http://www.electoralgeography.com/en/countries/i/iraq/2005-january-parliament-elections-iraq.html
4. Iraqi Election Predictions,
posted December 07, 2005
http://www.topdog08.com/2005/12/iraqi_election.html
5. Illegal Registration of one-forth million Kurdish voter,
http://www.freesuryoyo.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=131&Itemid=4&PHPSESSID=ed13a085df05cbc41514e33883d77fab
6. Legal violations and "integrity" of the Electoral Commission
in Iraq,
posted October, 2005,
http://thewomaniwasblog.blogspot.com/2005/10/blog-post.html
7. Turkmeneli party, “Clarification from the Party Turkmen Eli”, posted September 2005,
http://www.bizturkmeniz.com/ar/showArticle.asp?id=6715
8. National Iraqi News agency, “Iraqi Accord Front denies intention to
withdraw from the political”, posted December 2005, http://tareekalshaab.blogspot.com/2005_12_27_archive.html